Un Bohío: 'I told you so' - Current Food Shortages Predicted Last Year ... and Before

"The production of 35 billion gallons of ethanol requires 320 million tons of corn. According to FAO, US corn production in 2005 reached 280.2 million tons."

There has been growing attention paid in the mass media about how food shortages in developing countries is creating worsening conditions which is creating greater upheaval there which is creating more insecurity globally (remember the Bob Marley line i always quote: 'a hungry man is an angry man'). While most headlines this week have mentioned Haiti (as part of the usual attempt to cast that country in as bad a light as possible), it has not been limited to that long-suffering Caribbean land:

Unrest triggered by the higher food and fuel prices has been gaining steam
across the globe in recent weeks. During a two-day riot in Egypt earlier this
week, one person was killed. Cameroon has also seen street violence. In the
Philippines, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo warned on Tuesday that rice
shortages were exacerbating political and social tensions in the country. urlink

Unrest is surfacing in Bangladesh as well.While talk about the threat to global security posed by poverty (over half of all people on Earth have to "live" on less than $2 USD a day) has been growing over the past few years, students of history should not be surprised by these tragic events. In fact, this writer can think of two warnings issued as far back as 1979 and as recently as last year. Both warnings were issued by the same person: Dr. Fidel Castro.

*I will try to keep the following excerpts of both like a young lady's skirt: long enough to cover the subject but short enough to keep it interesting. Of course, url links to full text will be available by clicking on the dates of both warnings. - hassan

WARNING #1

30 March, 2007

Foodstuff as Imperial Weapon

Biofuels and Global Hunger

by FIDEL CASTRO RUIZ

More than three billion people in the world are being condemend to a premature death from hunger and thirst. It is not an exaggeration; this is rather a conservative figure. I have meditated for quite a long time on that after the meeting held by President Bush with the US automakers.

The sinister idea of turning foodstuffs into fuel was definitely established as the economic strategy of the US foreign policy on Monday, March 26th last.

A wire service story issued by the AP literally reads:

WASHINGTON (AP), March 26 - President Bush touted the benefits
of "flexible fuel" vehicles running on ethanol and biodiesel on Monday, meeting with automakers to boost support for his energy plans. Bush said a commitment by the leaders of the domestic auto industry to double their production of flex-fuel vehicles could help motorists shift away from gasoline and reduce the nation's reliance on imported oil.

"That's a major technological breakthrough for the country," Bush said after inspecting three alternative vehicles. If the nation wants to reduce gasoline use, he said "the consumer has got to be in a position to make a rational choice."

The president urged Congress to "move expeditiously" on legislation the administration recently proposed to require the use of 35 billion gallons of alternative fuels by 2017 and seek higher fuel economy standards for automobiles. ...

I think that reducing and recycling all fuel and electricity operated engines is an urgent and elemental necessity of all humanity. The dilemma is not in the reduction of energy costs, but in the idea of turning foodstuffs into fuel.

Today we know with accurate precision that one ton of corn can only render as an average 413 liters of ethanol (109 gallons), a figure that may vary according to the latter's density.

The average price of corn in US ports has reached 167 dollars per ton. The production of 35 billion gallons of ethanol requires 320 million tons of corn.

According to FAO, US corn production in 2005 reached 280.2 million tons.

Even if the President is speaking about producing fuel out of switchgrass or wood chips, any person could understand that these phrases are far from realistic. Listen well: 35 billion gallons, 35 followed by nine zeros!

Beautiful examples of the productivity of men per hectare achieved by the experienced and well organized US farmers will come next: corn will be turned into ethanol; corn wastes will be turned into animal fodder, with a 26 percent of proteins; cattle manure will be used as raw material for the production of gas. Of course, all of this will happen after a great number of investments, which could only be afforded by the most powerful companies whose operations are based on the consumption of electricity and fuel. Let this formula be applied to the Third World countries, and the world will see how many hungry people on this planet will cease to consume corn. What is worse, let the poor countries receive some financing to produce ethanol from corn or any other foodstuff and very soon not a single tree will be left standing to protect humanity from climate change.

Other rich countries have planned to use not only corn but also wheat, sunflower seeds, rapeseed and other foodstuffs to produce fuel. For Europeans, for example, it would be a good business to import the entire soybean production of the world to reduce the cost of fuel for their automobiles and feed their animals with the wastes of that legume, which has a high content of all kinds of essential amino acids.

I understand that Venezuela would not export alcohol; it will use it to improve the environmental safety of its own fuel. Therefore, despite the excellent technology designed by Brazil to produce alcohol, its use in Cuba to produce alcohol from sugarcane juice is nothing but a dream, the ravings of those who entertain such ideas. In our country, the land which would otherwise be devoted solely to the production of alcohol could be better used to produce foodstuffs for the people and protect the environment.

All countries of the world without exception, whether rich or poor, could save trillions of dollars in investments and fuel if they only replace all incandescent bulbs with fluorescent bulbs, which is what Cuba has done in all the residential areas of the country. This would be a palliative that will enable us to cope with climate change without killing the poor people in this planet with hunger.

As can be seen, I am not using adjectives to describe either the system or those who have become the owners of this world. That task will be brilliantly accomplished by the information experts, the many honest socio-economic and political scientists in this world who continuously delve into the present and the future of our species. A computer and the increasing number of Internet networks will just be enough to do that.

For the first time a truly globalized economy exists and a dominant power in the economic, political, and military spheres that is in no way similar to the ancient Rome ruled by emperors.

Some people may wonder why I am speaking about hunger and thirst. And I will answer: this is not about the other side of a coin, but of the many different sides of quite another object, maybe a six-sided dice or a polyhedron which has many more sides.

This time I will quote an official news agency, founded in 1945, which is in general very familiar with the economic and social problems of the world: TELAM. It literally said:

Within hardly 18 years, nearly 2 billion people will inhabit countries and regions where water might seem a far away memory. Two thirds of the world population could live in places where the lack of water could bring about social and economic tensions that could lead peoples to go to war over the precious "blue gold."

In the course of the last 100 years, water consumption has grown
at a pace which is more than twice the population growth rate.

"According to the World Water Council (WWC), the number of persons affected by this serious situation will increase to 3.5 billion by the
year 2015.

.

.

"An insufficient amount of the precious fluid necessary to produce foodstuffs, the impaired development of industry, urban areas and tourism, and the emergence of health problems are some of the consequences that derive from water shortage."

So much for the TELAM wire service.

I have not mentioned other important facts, such as the ice that is melting down in Greenland and the Antartic, the damages caused to the ozone layer and the ever higher titers of mercury found in many fish species which are part of the regular people's diet.

Other topics could be addressed, but in these few lines I simply intend to make some comments about the meeting held by President Bush with the chief executives of US automakers.

WARNING #2

October, 1979

.. the existing international economic order is profoundly unjust and incompatible with the development of the underdeveloped countries. The figures are already so well known that it is unnecessary for us. [Pauses] It is disputed whether the number of undernourished beings on our planet is only 400 million or if it has become 450 million as it is stated in certain international documents. Four hundred million hungry men and women is already too accusing a number. What no one doubts is that all of the hopes which have been displayed in the developing countries appear to have failed and to have been canceled by the end of this second decade of development.

The general director of the FAO Council has recognized that progress continues deceptively slow in relation to the long-term development objectives decided on in international development strategy in the declaration and action program on the establishment of a new international economic order, in the resolution of the world conference on food and in various subsequent conferences. The agricultural and food production of the developing countries over these past 10 years has far from achieved the modest annual average increase of four percent, which was set forth to resolve some of the most urgent problems of world hunger, and leads to further reduced levels of consumption. As a consequence of this, the food imports by developing countries, which right now constitute an aggravating element in their deficit balance of payments, will very soon reach, according to the FAO, such proportions as to be unmanageable.

The official pledges of foreign aid in agriculture for developing countries diminish in face of this. This panorama cannot be embellished. Sometimes certain official documents reflect the circumstantial increases of agricultural production in certain areas of the underdeveloped world. Or they point out the occasional increases in prices of some agricultural articles. But this deals with transitory advances and fleeting advantages. The income in terms of agricultural exports by developing countries continues unstable and insufficient in relation to their needs to import food, fertilizer and other necessary goods to increase their own production. In Africa food production per inhabitant in 1977 was 11 percent less than 10 years earlier.

If backwardness is perpetuated in agriculture, the industrialization process does not progress either. It cannot advance because of the majority of the developed countries the industrialization of the developing countries is seen as a threat. In 1975 in Lima the World Conference on Industrialization set for us, the developing countries, the goal of contributing by the year 2000, 25 percent of all manufactured goods produced in the world. But the progress from Lima to today is so insignificant that if we do not accept the measures proposed by the sixth summit conference and do not carry out an urgent program of rectifying the economic policy of the majority of the developed countries, this goal will also be unfulfilled. We have not yet arrived at producing 9 percent of the world's manufactured goods. Our dependency is once again expressed by the fact that we, the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, import 26.1 percent of the manufactured goods in international trade and we only export 6.3 percent.

A recent World Bank report pointed out a more serious prospect. It says that it is possible that by the year 2000 there will be 600 million inhabitants on this earth who will still be in absolute poverty.

Mr. President, Messrs Representatives: The situation of industrial and agricultural backwardness from which the developing countries have not been able to free themselves is without a doubt, as the sixth summit pointed out, the result of unjust and unequal international relations. Added to this now, as the Havana declaration also points out, is the prolonged crisis of the international economy. I will not spend too much time on this aspect.

We condemned the persistent diversion of human and material resources toward an arms race which is unproductive, wasteful and dangerous for mankind. [applause]

And we demanded that a considerable part of the resources now used for armaments, particularly by the major powers, be used for economic and social development.

We have expressed our grave concern over the insignificant progress of the negotiations dealing with the implementation of the declaration and the action program on the establishment of an international economic order. We pointed out that this was due to the lack of political desire by most of the developed countries and we expressedly censured the delaying diversionist and divisionist tactics adopted by those countries. The failure of the Fifth UNCTAD session demonstrated this situation.

The history of international trade has shown that development is the most dynamic factor of world commerce. The greatest part of the trade carried on at present is carried out among countries which are fully industrialized. We must insure that to the extent that industrialization and world progress expands, there will also be an expansion in commercial exchange that is beneficial to all. That is what we ask, in the name of the developing countries, and we support the cause of many countries. We are not asking for a handout. If we fail to find adequate solutions, we will all be victims of the catastrophe.

Mr. President, distinguished representatives: Human rights are often spoken of, but we must also speak of humanity's rights. Why should some people walk around barefoot so that others may travel in expensive cars? Why should some live only 35 years so that others may live 70? Why should some be miserably poor so that others may be exaggeratedly rich? I speak on behalf of the children in the world who do not even have a piece of bread. [applause] I speak on behalf of the sick who lack medicine. I speak on behalf of those who have been denied the right to life and human dignity.

Some countries are on the sea; others are not. [applause] Some have energy resources; others do not. Some possess abundant land on which to produce food; others do not. Some are so glutted with machinery and factories that even the air cannot be breathed because of the poisoned atmosphere; [applause] while others have nothing more than their emaciated arms with which to earn their daily bread. In short, some countries possess abundant resources; others have nothing.

What is their fate? To starve? To be eternally poor? Why then civilization? Why then the conscience of man? Why then the United Nations? [applause] Why then the world? One cannot speak of peace on behalf of tens of millions of human beings all over the world who are starving to death or dying of curable diseases. One cannot speak of peace on behalf of 900 million illiterates.

The exploitation of the poor countries by the rich countries must cease. I know that in many poor countries there are both exploiters and exploited. I address myself to the rich nations, asking them to contribute. And I address myself to the poor countries, asking them to distribute. Enough of words. We need deeds. [applause]

Enough of abstractions. We need concrete action. Enough of speaking about a speculative new international economic order that nobody understands. [applause] We must speak of a real, objective order that everybody understands.

I have not come here as a prophet of revolution. I have not come here to ask or to wish that the world be violently convulsed. I have come to speak of peace and cooperation among the peoples. And I have come to warn that if we do not peacefully and wisely resolve the present injustices and inequalities, the futurewill be apocalyptic. [applause] The sounds of weapons, of threatening language, and of prepotent behavior on the international arena must cease. [applause]

Enough of the illusion that the problems of the world can be solved by nuclear weapons. Bombs may kill the hungry, the sick, and the ignorant, but they cannot kill hunger, disease, and ignorance. Nor can they kill the righteous rebellion of the peoples. And in the holocaust, the rich -- who have the most to lose in this world -- will also die. [applause] *video

Let us say farewell to arms, and let us in a civilized manner dedicate ourselves to the most pressing problems of our times. This is the responsibility and the most sacred duty all the world's statesmen. This, moreover, is the basic premise for human survival.

*For good measure, Dr. Castro is not the only one that has held and shared this perspective. For added good measure, i think it is interesting to share comments made in September 2006. - hassan

For the last 20 years, neoliberal discourse has tried to convince us that the key to economic success is unlimited privatisation, minimum State intervention in the economy and the complete opening to the world market and transnational corporations.

Because of this, some 1, 300 million people, the poorest of the poor, are responsible for only 1.3% of the world consumption expenditure. In other words, they are completely marginalized from the market that neoliberalism extols as the great generator of riches.

Some countries have paid the sum of their foreign debt several times over, which is now twice the amount they owed originally.

In this globalised and transnationalised world economy, controlled by huge corporations, free trade is a mere illusion.

The current situation regarding energy supplies is due, largely, to unlimited squandering and consumerism by wealthy countries. This is nothing new, comrade Fidel Castro alerted us to this situation and made specific proposals in this regard during the opening ceremony of the 6th Summit in 1979. [*see above - hassan] The depletion of oil reserves is now a harsh reality in which the normal market rules cannot be applied to hydrocarbons and the prices shoot to unpredictable extremes, as do those applied to practically all of the goods and services that we have to import from the developed world.

- Raul Castro

them belly full but we hungry

a hungry man is a angry man

a rain a fall but the dirt it tough

a pot a cook but the food no 'nough..

cost of livin gets so high

rich and poor they start to cry

now the weak must get strong

they say oh what a tribulation

them belly full but them hungry

a hungry mob is a angry mob

a rain a fall but the dirt it tough

a pot a cook but you no 'nough

- Robert Nesta Marley